Previewing the biggest games on the college football schedule: On the Line

Let's begin with our weekly proclamation: this is the best weekend of the year so far. Except this time, that statement is backed not merely by the power of unbridled enthusiasm, but with actual statistical proof.

In addition to the above, we have three more ranked v. ranked games on Saturday. Nearly half the top 25 will have to beat a top 25 team to improve or maintain its place in the world. Let's get to it.

This is the biggest Tennessee game since Dec. 8, 2001. That was the day -- pushed back a week by 9/11 -- that No. 2 Tennessee faced No. 21 LSU for the SEC title with a BCS national championship berth on the line. The Nick Saban-led Tigers won that game, 31-20. Tennessee hasn't beaten Saban since then, carrying an 0-15 record against Saban's Crimson Tide into Saturday's game (3:30 p.m. ET, CBS). 

But Tennessee has never had a better chance to beat Alabama than it does now.

The No. 6 Vols and No. 3 Tide arrived to the Third Saturday in October undefeated for the first time since 1989, and for the first time since Tee Martin wore the Block T, Tennessee can believe it has the better quarterback of the two.

Either Alabama will play Bryce Young coming off a sprained AC joint, or backup Jalen Milroe, who completed 12 passes for 111 yards in relief of Young last week. Obviously, Alabama would prefer to have Young, but even if he plays, the reigning Heisman Trophy winner ranks 23rd in passing efficiency so far this season. Tennessee's Hendon Hooker is third, averaging 10.2 yards per attempt with 10 touchdowns against no interceptions.

Tennessee would prefer to face Milroe, lest Young get a crack at FBS's 128th rated pass defense (the Vols are 53rd in pass efficiency defense). Alabama is fifth, but that metric is buoyed by not having faced a top-25 caliber QB1 over a full game thus far this season. Texas's Quinn Ewers and Arkansas's KJ Jefferson left their respective tilts with the Tide, and Texas A&M's Max Johnson never played.

Here's hoping Hooker and Young play and play the full game. This game could be a shootout, and recent Tennessee football has never been more equipped to win it.

A Big Ten semifinal game in Ann Arbor. Michigan or Penn State have been in the AP Top 10 for 10 of their last 20 games, but this marks the first time Michigan and Penn State square off as AP Top 10 teams since 1997. Open up your nostrils and mainline this pure, uncut college football nostalgia.

The Big Ten champion trophy won't be handed out until Dec. 3 in Indianapolis, but the winner of this game (noon ET, Fox) will advance to face Ohio State for the Big Ten championship and a College Football Playoff berth.

On paper, Penn State is a good team; Michigan is a great team.

That said, Penn State's wins at Auburn and at Purdue are more impressive than any of Michigan's sixth victories. ESPN's Strength of Record metric places Michigan ninth, and Penn State seventh. 

Jim Harbaugh leads his series against James Franklin 4-3, but Penn State has won three of the last five, including the last meeting in Ann Arbor. Saturday's forecast calls for a high in the mid 50s, mostly cloudy, a steady wind, and a 24 percent chance of rain. It's as if God allowed Keith Jackson himself to set the thermostat for the perfect mid-October Midwestern day.

Oklahoma State and TCU fight for supremacy in the New Big 12. The 2021 season went about as well as possible -- an exciting, hard-hitting title game decided at the goal line, two New Year's Six winners, Cincinnati in the Playoff, six current or future members in the AP Top 20, Oklahoma and Texas in turmoil. This season is off to a fantastic start as well: thanks to Kansas's incredible start, the Big 12 is, top to bottom, the most competitive and exciting conference in college football.

And the winner Saturday in Fort Worth (3:30 p.m. ET, ABC) will be the king of the conference. At least for a week.

No. 8 Oklahoma State or No. 13 TCU will be the league's last undefeated team, and thus its best chance to reach the College Football Playoff, somewhere no one in the league besides Oklahoma has ever been. Short of that, the winner will have essentially a 2-game lead on the other in the race for the Big 12 Championship, the more immediate and realistic goal. 

Oklahoma State's Spencer Sanders and TCU's Max Duggan lead the conference in total offense (327 and 302 yards per game, respectively). Both are playing the best football of their respective careers; Sanders has thrown only two interceptions through 169 passes, while Duggan trails only Ohio State's CJ Stroud as the nation's most efficient passer. 

Both will put the fear of God into opposing defenses that, thus far, have been average at best.

Expect a 41-38 game that is hard hitting and competitive throughout.

We've got the Game of the Year at the FCS level.... North Dakota State-South Dakota State is always a big deal, but this one is BIG even by normal standards. 

No. 2 South Dakota State against No. 1 North Dakota State in the Fargodome marks just the second regular season 1 vs. 2 game at the FCS level -- ever. A 1 vs. 2 game has only happened six times previously, according to FCS expert Craig Haley, and five of those six occurred in the title game. Saturday's game will join No. 1 Northern Iowa's 27-26 win over No. 2 Idaho, way back on Oct. 24, 1992, as the only 1 vs. 2 game played outside of December or January.

While North Dakota State owns the higher ranking and a shelf full of national title trophies, South Dakota State has won the last two Dakota Marker games.

... And the Division II level. No. 1 Ferris State hosts rival  No. 2 Grand Valley State in the Anchor-Bone Classic. From Ferris State:

Both teams head into Saturday's contest ranked as consensus top two teams in the nation and it will represent the 14th time in series' history in which both squads have been ranked in the major D2 national poll at kickoff. FSU was ranked first in both the American Football Coaches Association (AFCA) Division II Rankings and the D2Football.com national poll last week with GVSU second in the listing. Ferris State has captured eight of the last nine regular-season matchups between the two West Michigan rivals and 10 of the last 12 meetings overall.

Presently, the Bulldogs enter Saturday's game riding a school-record 43-game regular-season winning streak dating back to 2017 and Ferris State has also currently won a school all-time best 19 consecutive games overall dating back to the start of last year in addition to 32-straight GLIAC matchups as the three-time defending conference champion.

Additional Games: 

-- Baylor at West Virginia (7 p.m. ET Thursday, FS1): West Virginia looks to avoid an 0-3 Big 12 start, while Baylor looks to keep pace in its chase for back-to-back Big 12 titles. A loss here for the 1-1 Bears may prove to be fatal. 

-- UTSA at Florida International (8 p.m. ET Friday, CBS Sports Network): FIU was outscored 73-0 in its conference opener against the defending C-USA runners-up. Now they get the defending champs. If the game doesn't go well, at least the field will look cool.

-- No. 19 Kansas at Oklahoma (noon ET, ESPN2): Jalon Daniels's injury is a big bummer for this game, and for the rest of the season, because this is KU's best chance to win in Norman since 1996. That said, Jason Bean went 17-of-23 for 246 yards (plus 59 rushing) and a touchdown in KU's near miss a year ago, and both teams have gone in opposite directions since. OU has had two straight "circle the wagons" games, and the wagons caught on fire both times. What kind of effort do the Sooners have in them this time? 

-- Iowa State at No. 22 Texas (noon ET, ABC): Iowa State has the No. 1 defense in the Big 12 and has won three straight in this series. That said, on paper, this looks like an easy Texas victory against a team that has struggled to get to 14 points in its last two games. 

-- Minnesota at No. 24 Illinois (noon ET, BTN): Might this be the de facto Big Ten West Championship? This division is so average, who can say? AP voters view the Illini as the division's top team, while FEI (to name one metric) has the Gophers at No. 7. In the country. Having said that, this one has all the 9-6 potential that last week did. These teams are Nos. 1 and 2 in total defense and Nos. 1 and 2 in scoring defense. Minnesota is No. 1 in the country in third down offense (70.3 percent) and third down defense (17.9 percent). 

-- Central Michigan at Akron (noon ET, ESPN+): The race to the bottom of the MAC is between three teams, these two and Northern Illinois. All three are 1-5 overall, 0-2 in the MAC, and their three respective wins all came against FCS teams.

-- UConn at Ball State (1 p.m. ET, ESPN3): In Year 1, Jim Mora has led UConn to two straight victories. The last time the Huskies won three straight came in 2015, which also happens to be the last time the program played in a bowl game.

-- Vanderbilt at No. 1 Georgia (3:30 p.m. ET, SEC Network): Vanderbilt brings the nation's longest losing streak against Power 5 competition with it to Sanford Stadium. So, it's an opportunity for Clark Lea's team to score the biggest upset in college football history.

-- No. 15 NC State at No. 18 Syracuse (3:30 p.m. ET, ACC Network): Syracuse seeks the first 6-0 start since going 11-0-1 in 1987, and its first win over a ranked team as a ranked team since the 2018 Camping World Bowl. NC State hasn't won a ranked v. ranked team since Oct. 5, 2017. 

-- Arkansas at BYU (3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN): Who knew this game was happening?? Pretty much the last thing an Arkansas team riding a 3-game losing streak with a banged up quarterback is a trip to thin air to play an always-physical BYU team, but the Hogs will find themselves in Provo to play the Cougars nevertheless. It'll be the first time the Cougars and the Razorbacks meet on the gridiron.

-- Texas State at Troy (3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN3): Louisiana is the only team to ever win the Sun Belt West, but that will likely change this year with the Cajuns off to an 0-2 start. And so into that void step... the Texas State Bobcats? The Troy Trojans? The winner will be 2-1 and, at worst, alone in second place in the division. Both teams are coming off impressive victories, so here's a chance to sustain some rare momentum. 

-- Western Kentucky at Middle Tennessee (3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN+): Another phenomenally named midseason rivalry -- 100 Miles of Hate. This game dates back to 1914 and has been played annually since 1952. WKU has taken three in a row and six of seven to even the ledger at 35-35-1.

-- No. 25 James Madison at Georgia Southern (4 p.m. ET, ESPN+): James Madison needed all of six games to join the AP Top 25, the quickest path to the poll in FBS history. Clay Helton's team, 0-2 in Sun Belt play after losing Modern Day Hate to Georgia State last week, looks to knock the Dukes out. 

-- Wisconsin at Michigan State (4 p.m. ET, Fox): After drubbing Northwestern 42-7 last week, would a big win in East Lansing be earn Jim Leonhard the full-time job, or would he need another win or two? Speaking of wins, Michigan State needs one, period. The Spartans are 0-3 in B1G play.

-- Louisiana Tech at North Texas (4 p.m. ET, ESPN+): La Tech has long been the hurdle UNT can't clear. The Bulldogs have won four in a row and nine of 12, dating back to 1983. With the Mean Green at 2-0 in conference play for the first time since 2017 -- they've won seven straight C-USA games, dating back to last season -- and La Tech in Year 1 under Sonny Cumbie. UNT is second in C-USA in rushing offense; La Tech is second-to-last in rushing defense. Now's the time for Seth Littrell's team.

-- Arizona at Washington (5:30 p.m. ET, Pac-12 Network): After a 4-0 start and an AP Top 25 ranking, Washington has dropped two straight. Arizona's next three games bring AP Top 25 teams, then a solid Washington State team. Safe to say, both team's paths to a successful season include a win on Saturday.

-- Rice at Florida Atlantic (6 p.m. ET, ESPN+): North Texas is off to its first 2-0 C-USA start since 2015. The last time Rice started 2-0 in league play? Try 2013, the year of the program's last outright conference title since 1957. FAU won the last Owl Bowl in 2016, but Rice leads the series 2-1.

-- LSU at Florida (7 p.m. ET, ESPN): It's the guy LSU hired against the guy a lot of people thought LSU should or would hire. LSU has won three straight and eight of the last 11, and a victory on Saturday evens the series at 33-33-3. 

-- No. 4 Clemson at Florida State (7:30 p.m. ET, ABC): Remember when this was the ACC game of the year? Clemson and Florida State met as ranked teams annually from 2011-16, peaking at a No. 3 vs. No. 5 game in 2013. But FSU hasn't brought a ranking to this game since 2017. In a related story, Clemson has won six straight. 

Also, less than two million people watched Clemson-BC in ABC's Saturday Night Football window last week, yet the Tigers are back for a third straight game.

-- No. 16 Mississippi State at No. 22 Kentucky (7:30 p.m. ET, SEC Network): Another one of those tantalizing Intersection Games, where each side's path to a successful season requires a win over the other. Just two weeks ago, Kentucky was in the top 10 and a completed pass away from winning at Ole Miss, now they're a loss away from a 3-game losing streak, with a trip to Neyland waiting next week and Georgia coming down the road. After Lexington, State gets three games against current AP Top 10 teams. Kentucky QB Will Levis is back, and Kentucky will need him against the nation's leading passer in MSU's Will Rogers. 

-- Stanford at Notre Dame (7:30 p.m. ET, NBC): Stanford had won seven of nine from 2009-17, but the Irish have taken three straight. It'll take a major upset to keep them from moving the streak to four.

-- Nebraska at Purdue (7:30 p.m. ET, BTN): Nebraska has won two straight Big Ten games for the first time since 2018, and now the Big Red is looking for Big Ten road wins in consecutive weeks for the first time... ever. Nebraska last won two straight B1G road games in 2016 (also the last time they won three straight B1G games), but the Huskers have not won conference road games in consecutive weeks since defeating Kansas State and Iowa State on the road on Oct. 7-14, 2006. 

-- No. 7 USC at No. 20 Utah (8 p.m. ET, Fox): Oregon State dragged USC into deep water a couple weeks ago. The Trojans survived, thanks to a 4-0 turnover margin. What happens when USC plays a more physical team, with a good running game, that doesn't cough up four turnovers? Expect the Trojans to get a lung full of salt water up in the mountains on Saturday night.

-- New Mexico at New Mexico State (8 p.m. ET): The Rio Grande Rivalry dates back to 1894, with UNM holding a 73-33-5. The Lobos have won three straight. 

-- North Carolina at Duke (8 p.m. ET, ACC Network): Remember earlier this year, when North Carolina beat Duke in Coach K's final home game and his final game, period? Anyway, UNC has won three straight and all but six meetings dating back to 1990.

-- Washington State at Oregon State (9 p.m. ET, Pac-12 Network): Another Intersection Game, where both teams can legitimately feel they have a better team than last year, yet the loser will find itself 1-3 in Pac-12 play by bed time on Saturday. 

-- San Jose State at Fresno State (10:45 p.m. ET, FS1): In the 85th Battle for the Valley, Fresno owns a 43-38-3 lead and scoreboard, thanks to a 40-9 win last season. But San Jose appears to have the best team in the MW West after a 40-7 beatdown of previously-undefeated-in-conference-play UNLV last week. 

Enjoy the games, everyone.