The Pac-12 is a 108-year-old conference, and the departure of Colorado, a school that didn't join until in 2011 and "never won anything to effect (the) conference," could be the kick that sends the whole house crashing down.
Here's where things stand as of Wednesday afternoon:
Pac-12: After first announcing plans to pursue its first post-USC/UCLA TV contract way back on July 5, 2022, Pac-12 officials finally presented the framework of a potential deal on Tuesday.
A deal to stream games on Apple TV+ was presented to campus leaders. According to multiple reports, this would be an incentive-laden contract, where the conference would stand to gain lots of money in the event people subscribe to the service... and stand to gain next to nothing if they don't. Needless to say, it's a high-risk, high-reward proposition for a conference with no margin for error.
Even if enough die-hard fans subscribed for an Apple deal to make financial success, there is another side of the coin to consider. The Pac-12 needs money and exposure. In order to remain relevant, the Pac-12 needs casual fans and recruits to watch its games.
The fact that this was the first deal Pac-12 leaders presented -- "the likely leader at this point," per ESPN -- is an ominous sign for the conference's solvency.
Arizona, Arizona State and Utah: After adding Colorado, the Big 12 has made it known it was room for one, and up to three, new members. Arizona was largely seen as the next-most-likely target.
Sensing this, Arizona, Arizona State and Utah have chosen to tie their futures together. All three will leave the Big 12, or all three will remain in the Pac-12.
On Tuesday, the Arizona board of regents -- a group that governs ASU and U of A, in addition to Northern Arizona -- met virtually. The meeting was initially open to the public, but the board immediately voted to take the meeting offline.
The Pac-12 has more meetings planned after Tuesday's, so it's likely the Southwest Three will wait to hear everything their current conference has to offer before joining a new one.
Cal, Stanford, Oregon and Washington: All four have undoubtedly considered their options in the even the Southwest Three leave, and on Wednesday reports emerged that the Big Ten has begun an exploratory evaluation of adding Oregon and Washington and Cal and Stanford (not a typo; each pairing is grouped together) in the event the four become available.
It doesn't take Nostradamus to envision the next steps from here. If the Southwest Three join the Big 12, the Northwest Four join hands and offer themselves to the Big Ten. If the Southwest Three opt to remain in the Pac-12, so will the Northwest Four.
USC and UCLA are joining as full members, meaning they'll make $70 million per year immediately upon their 2024 arrival. The Northwest Four would likely have to take reduced shares, perhaps through the life of the 7-year, $7 billion contracts with Fox, NBC and CBS that kick in this year, in order for the Big Ten to become the Big Twenty.
Given that their options would be reduced shares of Big Ten money or full shares of nothing, the choice for the Ducks, Huskies, Cardinal and Bears would be obvious. The Pac-12 has no TV contract after this coming year.
For the Big Ten, the math isn't so simple. Expanding to six West Coast schools could double or triple the number of cross-country flights for the 14 existing schools. Figuring out a financial picture that makes all 20 schools happy wouldn't be easy, to say the least.
Then again, all four schools have strong brands, strong academics, and exist in valuable media markets. If they're willing to come for at half the price of USC and UCLA, they'd be tough to turn down.
Either way, everyone on both coasts should have a nice laugh at this tweet.
None of this happens without USC and UCLA's departure.
“The Big Ten Conference is still focused on integration of USC and UCLA but it’s also the commissioner’s job to keep conference chancellors and presidents informed about new developments as they occur," the Big Ten said in a statement Wednesday.
Oregon State and Washington State: Now's the time to pray.
The Big 12 was in the Pac-12's shoes twice before, in the summers of 2010 and 2021. Improbably, the league survived.
Colorado was the first school to leave the Big 12 way back when. The idea of the Buffaloes returning to a Big 12 without Nebraska, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas and Texas A&M seemed more infinitely more improbable in June 2010 than the Pac-12 forging a path to survival in August 2023.
As always, stay tuned to The Scoop for the latest.