Previewing the biggest games on the college football schedule: On the Line

The First (Annual?) Gary Patterson Bowl goes down in Austin. Two questions will define No. 4 TCU at No. 18 Texas, one far more important than the other. First, who will be more satisfied in victory: TCU, moving to 10-0 with a team comprised of largely the same pieces of the 2021 Patterson-led team that went 5-7 with a win over Gary Patterson, or Patterson himself, who was dumped midseason after literally changing the course of Texas Christian University through 24 seasons of hard work.

Neither side will play it up pre-game, but victory will be extra sweet and defeat incredibly bitter for both sides here.

And now the far more important question: Which team plays a full four quarters?

Texas's second half issues have been well chronicled. The Longhorns led Texas Tech 31-17 in the second half, and lost 37-34 in overtime. The Longhorns led Oklahoma State 31-17 late in the second quarter, and lost 41-34. Even in victory Texas has slogged through second halves: they led Iowa State 17-7, then needed a 4th-and-1 touchdown and a fortunate fumble to win 24-21, and led Kansas State 31-10 at the half and needed another fumble to win 34-27. 

Since the Red River game, Texas has registered one second-half touchdown. They've been out-scored 48-16. Against Oklahoma State, Steve Sarkisian leaned too much on freshman quarterback Quinn Ewers despite the obvious fact Texas could not throw the ball. Against Kansas State, Sarkisian ran the ball into 8- and 9-man boxes for most of the fourth quarter.

And then there's TCU. The Horned Frogs trailed Oklahoma State 24-7, then fought back to win 43-40 in double overtime. They trailed Kansas State 28-10, then won 38-28. Even last week, TCU trailed Texas Tech 17-13 entering the fourth quarter before ripping off three consecutive touchdowns.

Another factor: Texas has played well at home (aside from the second half against Iowa State), while the roughest road environment TCU has seen so far this year was at Kansas. It was a raucous Kansas, granted. But it was Kansas. 

Can Texas's leaky second- and third-level pass defense stop stuff like this?

Can TCU's average run defense hold up against Bijan Robinson and Roschon Johnson? Can anyone play a full four quarters?

Those questions will decide the first, and perhaps last, Gary Patterson Bowl.

Is this the end of an era in college football? The last seven College Football Playoff title games have featured Alabama, Clemson, or Alabama and Clemson, a streak that is all but certain to end this season. Odds are, the ninth CFP field will be the first without Nick Saban and Dabo Swinney.

While it's too soon to declare either dynasty dead and gone, both are undeniably wobbly, and the idea of Alabama/Clemson invincibility could meet its end in the 3:30 p.m. ET window.

For starters, No. 8 Alabama could be eliminated in the SEC West by kickoff; if No. 7 LSU beats Arkansas, the Tide are done, knocked out before Thanksgiving weekend for the first time since 2010. 

Furthermore, a loss at No. 11 Ole Miss (3:30 p.m. ET, CBS) hands Alabama consecutive regular-season losses and three losses in a 4-game span for the first time since Saban's 2007 debut. (For their part, Ole Miss has never won the SEC West and a loss plus an LSU win keeps the Rebels without an SEC crown since 1963.)

At the same time, No. 10 Clemson's visit to Louisville (3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN) sees the Tigers look to avoid losing back-to-back regular season games for the first time since Nov. 19-26, 2011. Dabo Swinney's team has won 14 straight games following a same-season loss. 

The Tigers have already clinched their seventh ACC Championship berth in eight tries, but another loss keeps them out of the CFP field for the second straight year.

Neither team is going to fold the program in the event of a loss, but both (former?) powers would be in the midst of their worst stretch of football in more than a decade.

A major college football game in New Orleans... that isn't at the Superdome. The Wave is angry at ESPN for skipping its first ranked v. ranked home game since 1949 to return to Austin for its second time this season, but No. 22 UCF at No. 17 Tulane (3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN2) still has plenty of intrigue even without Lee Corso and Pat McAfee on campus.

For starters, these are the only two Group of 5 teams in the CFP rankings, and so the winner will have the inside track toward a Cotton Bowl berth. Beyond that, Tulane (5-0 AAC) and UCF (4-1 AAC) are your American Championship participants if the season ended today, but it doesn't.

Tulane has SMU and a road trip to Cincinnati after this game, while UCF gets Navy and South Florida. The loser could very well find themselves out of the conference title game, especially with Cincinnati also at 4-1 in league play. 

“We don’t worry about all that, man,” Tulane running back Tyjae Spears told NOLA.com. “The same people that uplift you will be the same people to kick you when you are down. It’s about going 1-0.”

Additional Games:

-- Tulsa at Memphis (7:30 p.m. ET Thursday, ESPN): Tulsa has to win out to reach a bowl game, while Memphis can afford only one more loss.

-- East Carolina at Cincinnati (8 p.m. ET Friday, ESPN2): The 2-time defending American champions are up against it. Cincinnati is currently out of the AAC title game thanks to an Oct. 29 loss to UCF, but can play their way in by winning out. Mike Houston's Pirates (6-3, 3-2 AAC) don't control their own destiny, but they're still in the mix, while a loss places them on the plank with an anchor around their neck.

-- Colorado at No. 8 USC (9:30 p.m. ET Friday, FS1): In what will almost certainly be their final visit to the LA Coliseum, Colorado is looking for its first win over the Trojans... ever. USC leads the all-time ledger 15-0. 

-- Fresno State at UNLV (10:30 p.m. ET Friday, CBS Sports Network): Fresno State leads the MW West, but the Bulldogs currently have no margin for error. 

-- Indiana at No. 2 Ohio State (noon ET, Fox): Last week's trip to Northwestern was not the blowout most expected, so might this be it? IU is 1-14 in Big Ten play since the magical 2020 season, and the Buckeyes have won the last 26 in a row.

-- Missouri at No. 5 Tennessee (noon ET, CBS): You can't expect 4-5 Mizzou to go into Neyland Stadium and win, but it'd be nice for the coaching staff to reward the administration's faith with a great performance. The Tigers are either catching Tennessee at the absolute best or worst time coming off that Georgia shellacking. 

-- No. 7 LSU at Arkansas (noon ET, ESPN): LSU is just a slight favorite here, which is... interesting? The Tigers are No. 7 in the CFP rankings, but in the 30s and 40s in various efficiency metrics. These teams' previous weeks could not have been more different, with LSU knocking off Alabama and Arkansas losing to Liberty. Both staffs should've had their team's attention this week, for completely opposite reasons.

-- No. 20 Notre Dame vs. Navy, at Baltimore (noon ET, ABC): After reaching a bowl game in 11 of his first 13 seasons, Navy now must beat No. 20 Notre Dame, No. 22 UCF and Army to avoid a third consecutive losing season.

-- Purdue at No. 21 Illinois (noon ET, ESPN2): Illinois leads the B1G West at 4-2, but it's a narrow lead over 3-3 Wisconsin, 3-3 Iowa, 3-3 Minnesota, and 3-3 Purdue. Isn't that the most B1G West sentence you've ever read? 

-- Liberty at UConn (noon ET, CBS Sports Network): A win makes UConn bowl eligible for the first time since 2015. At a program that went 1-11 a year ago. 

-- Rutgers at Michigan State (noon ET, BTN): Both teams enter at 4-5, which means the loser will have to win out. 

-- SMU at South Florida (noon ET, ESPN): Though they haven't actually played in a bowl game since 2019, SMU's next clinches bowl eligibility for the fourth straight season. 

-- Rice at Western Kentucky (2 p.m. ET, ESPN+): Both teams are still alive for the C-USA championship, though not for any longer with a loss. Rice (3-2) reaches the title game with three wins and one FAU loss, while WKU (4-2) needs two wins and two North Texas losses.

-- Temple at Houston (3 p.m. ET, ESPN+): A win lifts Houston into the postseason for the third straight season, while a loss keeps Temple out for the third straight season.

-- Nebraska at No. 3 Michigan (3:30 p.m. ET, ABC): It was 25 years ago Tuesday that Scott Frost's pass to Shevin Wiggins' feet to Matt Davison's hands kept Nebraska's undefeated season alive. Nebraska and Michigan would split the national title that season, the last before the BCS's formation. 

Michigan needs a win to clinch its fifth 10-win season in eight tries under Jim Harbaugh and, more importantly, to keep its march toward a second straight B1G title/CFP berth alive. Nebraska, meanwhile, must win out to avoid its sixth straight losing season.

-- Maryland at No. 14 Penn State (3:30 p.m. ET, Fox): Maryland would rather beat Penn State than any other B1G team, and while the Terps are still looking for their first win over the Nittany Lions since 1961, a win would move them to 3-2 at Beaver Stadium since joining the conference.

-- Arizona State at Washington State (3:30 p.m. ET, Pac-12 Network): A win lifts Washington State into bowl season, while a loss keeps Arizona State out.

-- Iowa State at Oklahoma State (3:30 p.m. ET, ESPNU): What has become of Oklahoma State? Someone's College Football Playoff pick has fallen on the hardest of hard times, losing to KU and K-State by a combined 85-16 in the last two weeks. Iowa State won its first Big 12 game last week, but a loss here means the Cyclones would need to win out -- including beating TCU in Fort Worth -- to avoid its first losing season since Matt Campbell's 2016 debut.

-- Wisconsin at Iowa (3:30 p.m. ET, FS1): Both teams are hanging by a thread in the B1G West at 3-3. Iowa has managed 24 points or more in two straight games. Can they do the unthinkable and make it three??

-- Northwestern at Minnesota (3:30 p.m. ET, BTN): Granted this is a gerrymandered stat but, still, did you know Northwestern has lost 14 straight games on American soil? The Wildcats' ongoing 8-game losing streak is the longest of the Pat Fitzgerald era, and a loss here makes the streak the program's longest since the 1989 0-11 season.

-- Miami at Georgia Tech (3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN3): How bad are things in Miami? In Year 1 of the Mario Cristobal era, the Hurricanes are underdogs to a Georgia Tech team that fired its head coach earlier this year. In this battle of 4-5 teams, you can get the 'Canes and a point and a half.

-- Appalachian State at Marshall (3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN+): In this battle of 5-4 teams, the winner clinches bowl eligibility. 

-- South Carolina at Florida (4 p.m. ET, SEC Network): Florida gets to bowl eligibility in Year 1 under Billy Napier with a win, after missing a bowl in Year 4 under Dan Mullen. A win would also give the Gators back-to-back SEC wins for the first time since Nov. 28-Dec. 5, 2020.

-- Texas State at South Alabama (5 p.m. ET, ESPN+): A loss clinches Texas State's eighth straight losing season, and a win moves South Alabama into a tie for first with Troy in the Sun Belt wins. The Trojans own the tiebreaker, so Kane Wommack's team needs another Troy lost. (Troy hosts Army on Saturday.)

-- No. 1 Georgia at Mississippi State (7 p.m. ET, ESPN): Mississippi State has never beaten the No. 1-ranked team in Starkville. Is this the time?? Probably not.

-- No. 25 Washington at No. 6 Oregon (7 p.m. ET, Fox): With USC and UCLA leaving, this series will become the Red River Rivalry of the new-look Pac-10. Both teams have heated in-state rivals, but hate each other more. Washington led this series 58-33-5 through 2004, but Oregon is 15-2 since. 

-- No. 19 Kansas State at Baylor (7 p.m. ET, FS1): Baylor can defend its Big 12 championship with four straight wins, which means the Bears control their destiny but also means they'd have to beat four straight ranked teams to win it. Kansas State, 4-2 in Big 12 play, is tied with Baylor, which means the Wildcats need to win out and Texas to lose one of its final three games.

-- Wyoming at Colorado State (7 p.m. ET, CBS Sports Network): A Wyoming win sets up a de facto MW Mountain championship next week between the Cowboys and Boise State.

-- Florida Atlantic at Florida International (7 p.m. ET, Stadium): In the 20th Shula Bowl, FAU looks to run its winning streak to six games and move its overall record to 16-4.

-- No. 15 North Carolina at Wake Forest (7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN2): North Carolina clinches its second ACC Coastal title with one more win or a Duke loss. 

-- Texas A&M at Auburn (7:30 p.m. ET, SEC Network): Both teams are 3-6, so the loser secures its first losing regular season since 2008 (A&M) or 2012 (Auburn). A&M has already endured its first 5-game losing streak since 1980, but that streak stopped at five. The Aggies' last 6-game skid? 1972.

-- Southern Miss at Coastal Carolina (7:30 p.m. ET, ESPNU): A win clinches Coastal's second Sun Belt East title, although it'd be the program's first Sun Belt championship game, since the 2020 event was canceled. They'll have to win it without 9th-year QB Grayson McCall.

-- No. 23 Florida State at Syracuse (8 p.m. ET, ACC Network): Would you believe FSU has not won five ACC games since 2016, and has not won three straight ACC games since that season either? Oh, you would? A win in the Carrier Dome clears another couple skeletons out of the Seminoles' closet.

-- Cal at Oregon State (9 p.m. ET, Pac-12 Network): One more loss clinches Cal's third straight losing season, while an Oregon State loss fully eliminates the Beavers from all Pac-12 championship scenarios. 

-- Stanford at No. 13 Utah (10 p.m. ET, ESPN): Stanford must win out to avoid its second straight losing season, while Utah must win to keep pace in the 4-way race for two spots in the Pac-12 Championship. 

-- Boise State at Nevada (10:30 p.m. ET, CBS Sports Network): At 5-0 in MW play, two more wins send the Broncos to the MW Championship for a conference-leading sixth time. 

-- San Jose State at San Diego State (10:30 p.m. ET, FS1): If Fresno State wins on Friday, SDSU is eliminated from MW championship contention with a loss. If Fresno loses on Friday, SJSU leads the MW West with a win in San Diego.